Abstract:Changing a deployment policy can invalidate a world model's uncertainty while leaving the physical transition mechanism and predictor unchanged. For one-step prediction, if source and target laws share the conditional mechanism $P(Y|X)=Q(Y|X)$, then the intervention is identified by the pre-outcome change of measure $w(X)=dQ_X/dP_X$. For policy-controlled dynamics this ratio factors into state-occupancy and action-propensity terms. Weighted conformal calibration transports marginal coverage to the target law; with an estimated ratio $\hat w$, $P_Q\{Y \in C_{\hat w}(X)\} \ge 1-\alpha-TV(Q,\hat Q) \ge 1-\alpha-E_P|w-\hat w|$. Population log-loss regret for a source-versus-target domain classifier bounds the same ratio error. If $h$ is its clipped target posterior, $\rho$ is the target-domain prior, and $\Delta(h)$ is population log-loss regret, then $E_P|w-\hat w_h| \le (1/(\rho\gamma))\sqrt{\Delta(h)/2}$. An exact cancellation improves the dependence from a generic odds-map bound of order $\gamma^{-2}$ to $(\rho\gamma)^{-1}$. Our experiments use a released DINO-feature world model and physical Franka trajectories. Under the strongest controlled state-action shift, ordinary 90% conformal sets cover 55.0%, whereas oracle and learned-ratio calibration cover 91.0% and 90.9%. The learned surrogate remains within 0.9% total variation of the target law. Calibration is relative to the deployment law: the model can remain fixed while calibration follows the intervention. We machine-check in Lean 4 the finite-support algebraic and causal identities used in the classifier-regret argument, including its coverage-composition step.
Submission history
Access Paper:
View PDF
HTML (experimental)
TeX Source
Additional Features
Audio Summary
Current browse context:
References & Citations
Google Scholar
Semantic Scholar
Bookmark
Institution
arXivLabs is a framework that allows collaborators to develop and share new arXiv features directly on our website.
Both individuals and organizations that work with arXivLabs have embraced and accepted our values of openness, community, excellence, and user data privacy. arXiv is committed to these values and only works with partners that adhere to them.
Have an idea for a project that will add value for arXiv's community? Learn more about arXivLabs.