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Kevin Roose is AGI-pilled. Why aren’t you?

Today, I’m talking to Kevin Roose, journalist and author of the new book The AGI Chronicles, which details the recent and explosive transformation of the AI industry. Kevin was a longtime New York Times reporter and host of the popular podcast Hard Fork, but he and friend of the show Casey Newton just left the […]

Kevin Roose is AGI-pilled. Why aren’t you?Kevin Roose is AGI-pilled. Why aren’t you?
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Tampered ML: Evaluating LLM Judgment of Machine Learning Research

arXiv:2610.32114v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: One approach to accelerating progress on AI alignment is to automate parts of alignment research itself. Doing so requires systems that can perform reliably on hard-to-supervise research tasks, including identifying flaws in research proposals and evaluating whether a proposed experiment supports its intended claim. To evaluate this capability, we introduce Tampered ML, a benchmark of 1,858 item-pairs, each consisting of an experiment proposal reconstructed from a published machine learning paper and a minimally edited counterfactual that introduces a targeted methodological flaw. Models must identify the more methodologically sound proposal in both presentation orders. A human validation study on a stratified sample estimates that 86% of ite

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Beyond What to Say: Proactive Utterance Timing with Inner Thoughts for Werewolf Agents

arXiv:2610.32107v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Participating in a conversation involves not only deciding what to say but also whether to speak at all. This judgment carries even greater significance in environments like the Werewolf game, where participants' interests conflict, because both utterances and silence are subject to interpretation and assessment by others. Therefore, determining when to speak, as well as what to say, is crucial for an LLM agent playing the Werewolf game. In this study, we introduce a Werewolf AI agent developed for the Anytime Utterance Track of the AIWolfDial shared task. Our system builds on the existing Inner Thoughts framework, which determines utterance timing during conversations by generating internal thoughts and evaluating the value of each thought f

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Cognitively Constrained Partners for Zero-Shot Coordination in Real-Time Partitioned Control

arXiv:2610.31726v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Effective human-machine teaming requires agents that coordinate with unpredictable human partners. Reinforcement learning from live human feedback or large behavioural datasets is expensive, while purely simulated training overfits to artificial conventions and fails at Zero-Shot Coordination with real people. We propose a framework for training teaming agents against Cognitively Constrained Partners: simulated partners whose diversity emerges from procedural constraints grounded in human physiological literature, specifically reaction delays and perceptual limitations, rather than from reward shaping or historical training checkpoints. In a modified Lunar Lander environment, we report preliminary evidence that these partners play more like r

Cognitively Constrained Partners for Zero-Shot Coordination in Real-Time Partitioned Control
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Collaborative In-Context Learning for Indoor Radio Map Estimation

arXiv:2610.31702v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Indoor radio map estimation (RME) is essential for wireless applications such as coverage planning, localization, and network deployment. However, most existing methods follow a supervised learning paradigm that requires costly labeled data and task-specific model training. Moreover, indoor environments involve privacy-sensitive information, such as building layouts and structures, that often cannot be centralized. To address these challenges, we make the first attempt to formulate indoor RME as a collaborative in-context learning (ICL) problem. We propose Poly-Ripple, a framework in which multiple clients perform ICL using large autoregressive vision models (LAVMs) without model updates. Each client is prompted by its private demonstrations

Collaborative In-Context Learning for Indoor Radio Map Estimation
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Beyond Hotness: High-Resolution Memory Characterization of Cloud and LLM Workloads for Tiered Memory with ARM SPE

arXiv:2610.32711v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Memory demands from data analytics and LLM workloads grow rapidly, driving up memory costs in cloud and data centers. Multi-tier memory has emerged as a promising solution to balance performance and cost. However, effectively leveraging it requires a deep understanding of workload memory behaviors. This work introduces a high-resolution memory characterization methodology for analyzing workload-specific opportunities for multi-tier memory usage. In response to the increasing deployment of ARM-based processors in data centers, we implement our methodology using the recent Statistical Profiling Extension (SPE) for ARM. By characterizing eight memory-intensive workloads from CloudSuite and LLM applications, we identify region-specific access pat

Beyond Hotness: High-Resolution Memory Characterization of Cloud and LLM Workloads for Tiered Memory with ARM SPE
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Do AI-for-Science Agents Preserve Model Safety?

arXiv:2610.32045v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: AI-for-Science agents are increasingly being used for formulating scientific hypotheses, running autonomous experiments, and interpreting evidence. These agents are constructed by integrating a large language model (LLM) into a domain-specific agent harness, which in turn can improve the LLM's scientific capability and enable the model to orchestrate scientific tools. In this work, we ask whether model safety is preserved when an LLM is integrated in an AI-for-Science agent harness. We evaluate five agent harnesses on 50 harmful chemistry requests. Specifically, we study how the safety behavior changes under direct prompting, two simple adversarial prompting strategies, and an adaptive attack. Across four recent GPT variants, our results show

Do AI-for-Science Agents Preserve Model Safety?
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Does LeWorldModel Preserve Local Action Geometry?

arXiv:2610.31716v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: We examine how closely pretrained LeWorldModel (LeWM) reproduces the effects of small action changes. Using matched simulator and model responses, we measure action sensitivity with Gram matrices at three perturbation scales. Across nearly a thousand states from Reacher and OGBench Cube, the most sensitive action directions differ by median angles of about $36^\circ$ and $42^\circ$, respectively, at the smallest scale. Increasing the perturbation tenfold reduces median normalized Gram discrepancy by roughly 70\% on Reacher and 47\% on Cube. Geometry measured in pixels and embeddings varies more across scales than the chosen physical-state geometry. On held-out directions, environment Grams achieve median embedding response errors of 17\% and

Does LeWorldModel Preserve Local Action Geometry?
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Latent Coherence: Do Frontier Language Models' Probability Judgments Obey the Law of Total Probability?

arXiv:2610.31833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, $P(X)=\sum_z P(z)P(X|z)$, when the latent $z$ must be inferred from records in the context? In separate single-turn calls, models are asked for $P(X)$, for $P(z)$ over the latent's states, and for $P(X|z)$; a causal family applies the same test to $P(y|do(x))$ and the back-door adjustment. Every query has an exact ground-truth probability, and a subset of items is asked in three wordings to separate

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Spatial Heuristic Strategy based Diffusion Reinforcement Learning for Online 3D Bin Packing

arXiv:2610.32241v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Traditional heuristic methods have accumulated mature experience in core objectives, such as space utilization and layout compactness of 3D bin packing, relying on artificially designed rule-based logic. However, they exhibit obvious limitations in generalization ability and adaptability to dynamic scenarios. Diffusion reinforcement learning, which integrates the spatial search capability of reinforcement learning and the data distribution modeling capability of diffusion learning, has achieved certain progress in action distribution modeling and decision compliance constraints. Nevertheless, there remain issues including insufficient perception of the spatial topological structure in 3D bin packing and limited layout optimization capability.

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GLP Networking API Specification

arXiv:2610.32583v1 Announce Type: cross Abstract: Multiagent deterministic GLP (madGLP) runs Grassroots Logic Programs (GLP) as agents that communicate solely by asynchronous message passing, and assumes fair delivery: every message sent is eventually delivered. Each agent runs on a person's smartphone, named by the person's public key. A grassroots platform depends on no global resource but the network, so agents must reach one another over Bluetooth Low Energy, on a local network, and across the Internet from behind NAT, via rendezvous servers anyone can run. What madGLP requires of such a network, and what the network requires of the platform, has not been specified. We specify the networking layer beneath madGLP. Anything that can be done in GLP is done in GLP: the layer provides only

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In LLM evaluation, relying solely on the overall F1 score to validate automated scorers carries the risk of misleading results: a new study underscores the need to calibrate for prompt-specific differences.

An arXiv paper (2610.31678v1) points out that, in interactive evaluations of large language models, relying solely on the overall accuracy or F1 score of automated scorers can mask prompt-specific errors, leading to misjudgments of prompt effects. Empirical evidence shows that the same scorer exhibits substantial variation in its false-positive rate across different prompts (2.6%–33.3%), and a seemingly significant 9.3-point effect shrinks to 2.3 points—and becomes non-significant—under dual-LLM review.

Validating the Comparison, Not Just the Scorer: Why Overall Accuracy Can Mislead in Interactive LLM Evaluation

Why it matters:This study, based on real experimental data (6 models, 180 fictional entity‑based questions, and 6 prompt conditions), reveals a widespread methodological flaw in current LLM evaluations: equating the scorer’s overall performance with its reliability on key benchmark tasks. Its central claim—that each prompt must be audited separately and uncertainty must be incorporated—rests on clear empirical evidence and offers actionable recommendations, making it highly timely (published on 2026‑10‑26) and backed by a credible source (the arXiv preprint platform).

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StackGen3D: Stable 3D Block Stack Generation from Multiview Silhouettes

arXiv:2610.31803v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Generating physically stable 3D structures from visual specifications requires resolving geometric ambiguity while accounting for physical interactions among objects. We present StackGen3D, a framework for generating stable block assemblies conditioned on a given block inventory and three orthographic silhouettes. Our approach consists of two stages. First, we develop a physics-informed graph neural network (PI-GNN) that models support relations between blocks and serves as a fast stability predictor for curating a diverse dataset of stable structures. Second, we train a conditional flow-matching model on this dataset to capture the multimodal distribution of block configurations consistent with the target silhouettes. At inference time, ligh

StackGen3D: Stable 3D Block Stack Generation from Multiview Silhouettes
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X-Dubbing: Speech-to-Speech Translation under Temporal and Visual Constraints

arXiv:2610.32042v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Cross-lingual dubbing aims to convert source speech into target-language speech that remains synchronized with the original video. The key to this task is to produce a faithful translation that is naturally speakable within the source timing, which is non-trivial because languages differ in duration, rhythm, and articulation. In this paper, we propose X-Dubbing, which formulates the task as a joint problem of time-aware speech-to-text translation and video-aware text-to-speech. Specifically, our method consists of a Dubbing Translator that generates temporally structured scripts and a Voice Actor that renders them in synchrony with the source video, both grounded in a language-agnostic timing budget. We further refine the translator with dubb

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Autoregressive Multimodal Anomaly Detection with Large Language Models for Microservice Systems

arXiv:2610.31722v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Microservice systems have become a dominant architecture for large-scale cloud applications, enabling rapid deployment and elastic scaling. However, ensuring the reliability and availability of microservice systems critically relies on effective anomaly detection, as failures and performance anomalies can quickly propagate across services and severely impact end-to-end system behavior. Existing multimodal anomaly detection approaches for microservice systems often struggle with two fundamental limitations: (i) the neglect of modality-specific characteristics in favor of cross-modality fusion, and (ii) the "identity-shortcut" problem that affects the feature reconstruction process. To address these issues, we propose LLMMAD, an autoregressive

Autoregressive Multimodal Anomaly Detection with Large Language Models for Microservice Systems
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