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Artifact Distillation: Training-Free Transfer from Frontier to Small Language Models

arXiv:2610.37680v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Closing the gap between frontier and smaller language models is usually approached by distillation: fine-tuning the small model (student) on a frontier model's (teacher) outputs, which binds transfer to training compute and leaves the transferred knowledge largely opaque. We propose Artifact Distillation: a teacher solves training instances and externalizes its problem-solving procedure into an artifact bank that a student queries at inference time, with no gradient updates. Across four LiveBench tasks, a bank written by Claude Opus 4.5 lets Claude Haiku 4.5 outperform unaided Claude Sonnet 4.5 on spatial reasoning (0.707 vs. 0.647) at 60% of its cost, and reach Sonnet 4.5's level on table joining at 89% of its cost. The same raw bank raises

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Latent Coherence: Do Frontier Language Models' Probability Judgments Obey the Law of Total Probability?

arXiv:2610.31833v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: LawZero's Scientist AI trains a Predictor toward the Bayesian posterior, with an objective that penalizes inconsistent probabilities among latent explanations. We ask whether current frontier language models, with no such training, are already consistent in this sense zero-shot: do their probability judgments satisfy the law of total probability, $P(X)=\sum_z P(z)P(X|z)$, when the latent $z$ must be inferred from records in the context? In separate single-turn calls, models are asked for $P(X)$, for $P(z)$ over the latent's states, and for $P(X|z)$; a causal family applies the same test to $P(y|do(x))$ and the back-door adjustment. Every query has an exact ground-truth probability, and a subset of items is asked in three wordings to separate

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