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2026-10-30

arXiv cs.AI12:00

Amortized Localized Posterior Inference for Model Calibration with Application to an Ocean Turbulence Closure

arXiv:2610.37731v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Model discrepancy may prevent a single calibration parameter from reproducing a physical response across the context domain. In addition, uncertainties in observations and contexts affect calibration and must be accounted for and quantified. We construct a family of localized posteriors by weighting observation likelihoods according to their proximity to a target context. Gaussian localization weights incorporate context uncertainty through covariance inflation, with reflection at domain boundaries and an optional correction for uneven context sampling. A conditional normalizing flow approximates the family of posteriors through amortized variational inference. Integrating the localized posteriors under a prescribed context measure gives the

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2026-10-27

arXiv cs.LG12:00

A Mathematical Theory of the Jacobian Lens

arXiv:2610.31955v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Recent work from Anthropic introduced a new interpretability tool, called the Jacobian lens (J-lens, Gurnee et al., 2026). This method identified linear directions in the hidden states of frontier language models that had properties reminiscent of working memory-like representations. However, it is unclear what mechanistic properties of such features make them detectable to the J-lens. To this end, we introduce a mathematical theory of the J-lens, and show that it preferentially identifies coherent features -- directions that act like leading, spatially coherent Lyapunov modes. Small perturbations along these directions amplify across layers, remain roughly constant across token positions, and are consistent across different contexts. While w

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arXiv cs.LG12:00

EVOLVE: Uncertainty-Aware Multivariate Time Series Anomaly Prediction with Adaptive Prototype Memories

arXiv:2610.32189v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Unsupervised multivariate time series anomaly prediction (AP) aims to estimate future anomaly risks from current observations, providing early-warning signals for proactive intervention and maintenance in complex systems. Existing unsupervised AP methods follow a perturbation-based paradigm, where predefined or random perturbations are injected into historical windows to simulate abnormal future evolution. However, these methods share perturbations across different variables and contexts, and learn deterministic history-to-future evolution. In reality, anomaly evolution is variable- and context-dependent: the same perturbation may be amplified into abnormal future dynamics in one variable or context, while being absorbed as normal fluctuation

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arXiv cs.CL12:00

Linear-Time Context Compression with State-Space Encoding

arXiv:2610.33006v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Transformer-based large language models (LLMs) impose substantial computation and memory costs as context sizes increase, motivating methods that compress a context into a shorter representation before inference. Existing soft-prompt compression methods typically use the same Transformer backbone as used in the target model, where producing the compressed representation leads to significant latency overheads. This restricts them to the offline setting where context is compressed once and then reused across many queries. We propose the Boa Compressor, a plug-and-play online context compressor built on a Mamba state-space model (SSM) that encodes arbitrary-length context in a single linear-time pass, producing a representation on which we condi

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